Key Points:
- XRP rallied 3.10% on Oct 14, hitting a 12-day high at $0.585, boosted by China’s fiscal policies amid broader crypto market gains.
- Kamala Harris’s crypto framework pledge stirs investor interest, but questions remain about the SEC's appeal strategy.
- SEC must file its XRP appeal brief by Dec 2, 2024, but a Trump win could see the agency withdraw the appeal entirely.
XRP Hits 12-Day High Amid Broad-based Crypto Rally
On Monday, October 14, XRP rallied 3.10%, reversing a 1.35% loss from the previous session to close at $0.5485. Despite the rally, XRP trailed the broader crypto market, which jumped by 4.78%, driving the total market cap to $2.247 trillion.
China’s recent fiscal policy measures likely boosted crypto demand. With lower lending rates, investors could borrow more cheaply and invest in riskier assets. Optimism around China achieving its 5% growth target for 2024 also contributed.
Kamala Harris’s Crypto Frameworks Pledge Challenges SEC Appeal Strategy
On Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris boosted crypto demand. The US VP and Democratic Party candidate reportedly stated,
“A plan to come up with rules for cryptocurrency and other digital assets: more than 20% of Black Americans own or have owned cryptocurrency assets, according to the campaign.”
GoodMorningCrypto shared the news, adding,
“According to the Harris campaign, they intend to specifically target Black men in the closing days of the election.”
Kamala Harris’s comments drew some criticism. Fox Business Journalist Eleanor Terret remarked that it was odd for the US Democratic Party candidate and her running mate to decline meeting with crypto leaders of all races. While narrowing her voting audience, Harris’s comments raised hopes for bipartisan crypto support.
Trump’s Election Chances and Their Ripple Effect on the SEC’s Appeal
Meanwhile, the latest betting odds give Trump a 55.0% chance of winning the Presidential Election, according to Polymarket. A Trump victory could significantly alter the US crypto landscape as he previously pledged to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one. This may push the SEC to drop its appeal against Ripple.
Based on appellate timelines from pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli, the SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief by December 2, 2024. The agency may also extend to January 2025.
The agency could drop the appeal without material repercussions if Trump returns to the White House before the SEC files its opening brief.
XRP Capped at $0.55 as Appeal Uncertainty Lingers
Despite Monday’s rally, XRP failed to break out from $0.55 amid uncertainty over the SEC’s appeal. Judge Analisa Torres previously ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. Before the SEC’s Notice of Appeal and the court docket, the consensus was that the SEC would not challenge the ruling.
In an August 2024 interview with CryptoLaw US, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stated,
“But I’ll say a couple of things. Number one, and I think this is important for folks to appreciate and understand. XRP’s status as not a security and the secondary market trading of XRP as not security transactions. That is the law of the land and that does not change even if the SEC appeals.”
However, successfully overturning the Programmatic Sales ruling could pave the way for more litigation against crypto firms in the US.
XRP Price Outlook: Appeal Filings and the US Presidential Election
XRP could attempt another breakout from $0.55 if Trump continues to lead in the polls. A Trump win and the possible removal of SEC Chair Gensler could drive XRP to $1.00, tracing its post-Programmatic Sales ruling move. Conversely, a Harris victory may leave the US courts to dictate XRP’s path. XRP may fall through $0.50 if the SEC files a convincing appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling.
Outlook
Investors should closely monitor the SEC’s appeal-related maneuvers, which may influence XRP demand. The US Presidential Election race and ongoing SEC vs. crypto cases-related news remain crucial for XRP’s price trends.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.
A break above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs could support a move toward the $0.5739 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $0.5739 resistance level may give the bulls a run at the $0.6609 resistance level.
Ripple case-related news, SEC activity, and SEC vs. crypto case-related updates require consideration.
Conversely, a drop below the $0.50 level may signal a fall toward the trend lines.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 47.51, XRP may fall through $0.50 before entering oversold territory.
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